Crisis en Venezuela by Center For A Secure Free Society

Table of Contents Overview Situation Foreign Intervention Military Propaganda for "Civil War" Humanitarian Crisis Congressional Response U.S. Sanctions SFS Perspective Overview Venezuela has started to garner international attention as the country's political situation continues to deteriorate, shining a spotlight on the oft-neglected country and its internal unrest. On August 11th, President Donald J. Trump stated during a press conference that he would not discard “a possible military option, if necessary," in Venezuela given the Maduro regime’s persistent repression of protestors and consolidation of power. A few days later, CIA Director Mike Pompeo remarked, “Venezuela could very much become a risk for the United States of America. The Cubans are there, the Russians are there, the Iranians, Hezbollah are there. This is something that has a risk of getting to a very, very bad place, so America needs to take this very seriously.” CIA Director Mike Pompeo's comments on Venezuela on Fox News President Trump's remarks on Venezuela during press conference Unless current trends change, the Trump administration will likely have to decide if, when, and how to provide humanitarian assistance to the Venezuelan people. This includes planning for a potential mass refugee crisis, as well as a potential large-scale and dangerous Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) in Caracas. President Nicolás Maduro's regime and its external allies have planned for this. They are counting on U.S. intervention in Venezuela to help them drive an anti-American narrative throughout the region and legitimize their increased military mobilization in Venezuela. Through high-level, sophisticated information operations and advanced counterintelligence measures, the Maduro regime intends to control the chaos in the country and manipulate the public’s perception of the crisis to its benefit. U.S. humanitarian aid will undoubtedly be spun as clandestine military and paramilitary action, and will likely be met with increased military and intelligence support to the Venezuelan regime by Cuba, China, Russia, and Iran. The U.S. tendency to overlook Latin America in formulating foreign policy has resulted in a void of accurate information on Venezuela and the region. SFS stays committed to providing up-to-date reporting and has consistently emphasized the importance of Venezuela and Latin America to U.S. foreign policy and national security. Our field research and detailed analysis is carefully constructed so that U.S. policymakers can count on a proper threat assessment. This Situation Report (SITREP) provides research, writings, and testimony from scholars, senior fellows, and international fellows of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS), as well as information from other scholars and international news outlets analyzing the crisis in Venezuela. Situation Venezuela is on the verge of a constitutional crisis that could accelerate into a “civil war.” This "war" has been manufactured by the Maduro regime, which is using its military and intelligence to manipulate public and political unrest to its benefit, despite the lack of a credible threat against which Venezuela must be defended. The regime's actions are designed to provoke its opposition into calling for protests and inciting violent confrontations, using an already chaotic political atmosphere as cover. This chaos erupted with the dissolution of the National Assembly in March and further intensified when the government solidified its control through the 545-member Constituent Assembly elections this past July. Popular rebellions, either through the military or student/youth activists known as the “resistance,” have further fractured the country, as the escalation of force increases. While the outside world sees a popular uprising against a repressive regime, the government has been capitalizing on the resulting instability to remove dissidents, control defectors, and eliminate any threat to its rule. Monitoring the circumstances in Caracas closely are Russia and China, the two largest creditors to the Venezuelan regime. Owing more than $160 billion in outstanding debt, Venezuela’s economic collapse could result in the world’s largest default on external debt. Having reinforced their credits, loans, and investments in the country through debt-for-asset swaps, Moscow and Beijing will be there to pick up the pieces. Meanwhile, Iran and Cuba have established themselves on the ground to redefine the informational “ground truth.” Collectively, these external influences are helping the Venezuelan regime create an international narrative that exacerbates the conflict and justifies increased foreign intervention. U.S. response to date has focused largely on targeted sanctions of Venezuelan regime officials--including the president and vice president--and sources of oil industry financing, and working with a growing regional coalition to isolate the Maduro regime. Draft bills are also moving through the U.S. Congress to provide humanitarian aid to Venezuela. These responses have the potential to spiral out of control unless the U.S. has a sound strategy based on an accurate threat assessment and proper understanding of the situation. Below is commentary and analysis from SFS Executive Director Joseph Humire detailing the crisis and identifying the role of extra-regional actors in its development. On February 28th, Humire testified before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere where he outlined the policy priorities the Trump administration and Congress should focus on in Venezuela and Latin America writ large. On May 23rd, Humire warned against U.S. intervention in Venezuela in an article for Breitbart. On July 13th, Humire spoke on The John Batchelor Radio Show about the situation on the ground and external influences in the country, drawing several parallels between Venezuela and Syria. On August 13th, Humire was quoted in Mary O’Grady’s Wall Street Journal column entitled “Imperialists invade Venezuela,” which described how Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have infiltrated the country. On August 18th, Humire outlined Venezuela’s ties to terrorism and Iran on Secure Freedom Radio and discussed whether the country is moving toward a “civil war.” On August 23rd, Humire outlined how Iran, Syria, and Russia are fortifying the Maduro regime on PanAm Podcast.  Earlier this month, the Military Review published a comprehensive article entitled the “The Collapse of Venezuela and its Impact on the Region” by Dr. R. Evan Ellis of the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College.  Humire on NTN24's Poder Latino, debating the intention behind President Trump's statement on military options in Venezuela Humire appears on CNN en Español to discuss President Trump's statements on U.S. Response to Venezuela Foreign Intervention The United States' lack of focus on our southern neighbors has enabled extra-regional actors to counter and offset U.S. regional presence and influence in the region for almost two decades. These actors have placed strategic military and intelligence assets in Venezuela, using the country's social unrest and political instability to undermine U.S. legitimacy. This effort is backed by a joint, intergovernmental, multinational alliance that is fortifying the Maduro regime through intelligence, cyber, technological and financial support, as well as military armament and advisors. This “Multipolar Force” consists principally of Iran, Cuba, Syria, and Russia, with shadow support from China.  Iran  - Read More Cuba  - Read More Russia  - Read More China  - Read More Military Propaganda for "Civil War" On January 13-14, 2017, Venezuela executed the largest military exercise in its history with the participation of defense attachés from 27 nations and military advisors from Cuba, Iran, and Russia. The exercise, entitled Zamora 200 1-2017, was an “Anti-Imperialist Integral Action Civil-Military Exercise” made up of 580,000 participants conducting various military drills and maneuvers throughout the country. On the surface, Zamora 200 is a war-gaming exercise designed to plan for a contingency of the Colombian Army amassing along the Venezuelan border, augmented by U.S. air and naval assets combined with Special Forces working with an internal counter-revolutionary force in Venezuela. This scenario is identified as the highest "threat" to the national security of the Bolivarian Republic. Beneath the surface, the Zamora 200 civil-military exercise has the signature of a sophisticated information operation to construct an international narrative around the potential for a “civil war,” justifying increased military mobilization throughout the country, strengthening of countrywide surveillance and intelligence systems, and consolidating the Venezuelan regime. Military exercises are common as contingency planning for potential threats. However, they are also commonly used as pretext for increased military mobilization and strategic messaging to internal and external audiences. Parallels between rehearsed situations within the Zamora 200 civil-military exercise in January and the actions of the Maduro regime in months that followed suggest that Zamora 200 (now Plan Zamora) was a propaganda tool designed to support the regime's “civil war” narrative and justify the use of military force amidst a economic and humanitarian crisis. The regime's goal is to provoke the opposition into protesting and inciting a military “rebellion,” effectively starting a “civil war.” Click here to see some recent examples of how Venezuelan government actions were used to trigger unrest and instability.    Humanitarian Crisis The deteriorating humanitarian situation in Venezuela only contributes to political unrest, propelling the country further into a downward spiral. In the past few months, the country’s economic collapse has led to shortages on numerous basic goods, sparking ongoing protests that highlight the lack of resources felt by majority of the population. Reuters reports that inflation in Venezuela has hit a skyrocketed 248.6% in just the first seven months of this year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that overall inflation has reached 720.5% and is projected to reach 2,068.5% in 2018--the highest inflation in the world. SFS Senior Fellow Fernando Menéndez wrote an article on May 5th in China-US Focus explaining how the rapid deterioration in Venezuela has repercussions in China. Executive Director Joseph Humire joined CGTV on May 9th to discuss the political and economic crisis in the country. Menéndez joined CGTV on May 17th to further explain the economic crisis, noting that the food and medicine shortages can be measured through staggering statistics of weight loss and increased illness amongst the population. A consortium of Venezuelan universities and NGOs called Encovi produced a study (in Spanish) that reports the food shortage’s effect on the country's health. It stated that among those surveyed, 72% of Venezuelans have lost 19 pounds in the last year. A 2016 report from Human Rights Watch states that 87% of those interviewed “had difficulty purchasing food and 12% were eating two or fewer meals a day,” a testament to the economic hardship in the country. Congressional Response  There are at least six (6) legislative actions on Venezuela in the U.S. Congress, including four (4) bills and two (2) resolutions. So far, all have been introduced in their respective chambers; only S.Res.35 has passed the Senate. The bills are equally bipartisan, with three (3) sponsored by a Republican and three (3), a Democrat. The bills are also similar in nature, with a humanitarian response as a consistent theme in all of them except for S.1519, which appropriates defense spending for the 2018 fiscal year. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is credited with adding a vital amendment in the markup process to S.1519, directing the Secretary of Defense to report on military and intelligence cooperation between Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Russia, and foreign terrorist organizations by April 2018. Click here for a breakdown of legislative action regarding Venezuela. These legislative bills are currently being debated in committees, as members of Congress continue to release statements on the situation in the country. Below is a list of statements that reflect the growing geopolitical importance of Venezuela and how external influences (the Multipolar Force) are manipulating the circumstances on the ground. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) gave this statement on August 2nd during a floor speech:   "Venezuela — once one of the most richly resourced countries in Latin America — is being dismantled by Nicolás Maduro and his flailing Chavista regime. It is a human tragedy, impacting more than 30 million people who are literally witnessing society collapse around them.” “Maduro’s actions must not continue unchallenged. I support the Treasury Department’s sanctions against senior Venezuelan officials, including Maduro, placing him in the ignominious company of Kim Jong-un and Robert Mugabe. We must keep the pressure on, and continue to isolate and delegitimize Maduro’s regime. For behind Maduro can be found China, with its billions in infrastructure investment, and Russia, with its growing control over Venezuela’s energy sector, and Iran, whose Hezbollah proxy launders money with Maduro’s acquiescence.” Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) issued the following statement on September 20, 2016, after a visit to Cuba and Venezuela by Iran’s President Rouhani:  “The Iran-Cuba-Venezuela axis is a dangerously toxic mix of three regimes led by despots who sponsor terrorism, violate human rights, censor the internet, kidnap innocent American citizens for ransom, and routinely violate and aid in the evasion of international weapons sanctions. Iran is the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism, and I can assure the public that its 'president' is not visiting Cuba to enjoy apartheid beaches, drink mojitos or take in 'people-to-people exchange' salsa lessons. The fact that Nicolás Maduro would take the time to host Rouhani, as the Venezuelan people lack necessities like medicine and food and the country disintegrates around him, says a lot about his misguided priorities and intentions.” U.S. Sanctions The United States Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned 32 officials in the Venezuelan government in 2017. U.S. sanctions on the Venezuelan government began in 2008 and have accelerated since 2015, after President Obama announced a new executive order, “Blocking Property and Suspending Entry of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Venezuela.” This EO provided the Treasury Department enhanced authority to target officials in the Venezuelan regime. In 2008, Hugo Carvajal, then Director of Venezuelan Military Intelligence, along with the former Interior Minister Ramón Rodríguez and Henry de Jesús Rangel, Director of DISIP, were sanctioned by OFAC. These sanctions illuminated the increasing role of the Venezuelan military in drug trafficking. In 2011, additional Venezuelan military and intelligence officers were added to the Treasury’s sanctions list for drug trafficking, including Major Cliver Alcala, and SEBIN officer Ramón Madriz. That same year, the U.S. State Department imposed limited sanctions on PDVSA for its financial dealings with Iran. These sanctions were subsequently lifted with the passing of Iran’s nuclear deal two years ago. In 2013, the State Department re-imposed nonproliferation sanctions on Venezuela’s military industry, CAVIM, for bilateral cooperation with sanctioned Iranian entities, which have since expired as of December 19, 2016. Click here for a list of this year's OFAC sanctions regarding Venezuela. SFS testimony supports some of the USG sanctions, but emphasizes that they should be reinforced by a comprehensive, multi-dimensional, whole-of-government strategy. Sanctions in and of themselves are not sufficient to deal with the crisis in Venezuela and could have significant blowback if they are not leveraged through multi-lateral actions. Joseph Humire, Executive Director of SFS, appeared on CNN en Español on February 13th to discuss the OFAC designation of Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami. Humire appeared again on CNN en Español on July 20th to discuss sanctions as strategy. He noted that sanctions are a starting point to advance U.S. interests in the country, but should be used alongside clear goals and a sound strategy that serves U.S. national security interests in Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere writ large. SFS Senior Fellow J.D. Gordon echoed this message on Fox Business on July 30th, stating that sanctions are a good start, but other regional actors need to follow suit. Several experts propagate the dangers in sanctioning Venezuela’s oil industry and five (5) Republican senators have directly expressed to President Trump that sanctioning the Venezuelan oil industry could potentially push the country closer to China and Russia, two of the largest creditors of Venezuelan external debt. SFS Perspective The Trump administration and U.S. Congress must weigh the costs and benefits of any action (including sanctions and humanitarian assistance) against the Venezuelan government’s plans to catalyze a “civil war.” China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba, who participated in Venezuela’s largest civil-military exercise (Zamora 200), are helping the regime establish an international narrative around the crisis to provoke U.S. intervention. Any intervention on behalf of the United States or its allies will be leveraged to justify increased foreign involvement by this Multipolar Force. U.S. sanctions against the Maduro regime, while having a positive effect in showing solidarity with the Venezuelan people, can have the unintended consequence of strengthening the regime’s narrative that the country is under attack from external actors waging economic warfare against the state. U.S. sanctions targeting the Venezuelan oil sector would also bolster this narrative. Likewise, Colombia’s ongoing discussions to join NATO reinforce the Venezuelan’s regime’s claim of foreign intervention, and provide Russia a pretext to increase its involvement in the conflict. Establishing a counter-narrative to the one propagated by the Maduro regime and its external allies is key to curbing the regime’s efforts. For this counter-narrative to be effective, the Trump administration must work closely with regional allies, particularly in Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. The latter has already shown the political will and regional leadership to speak out publicly against the repressive regime in Venezuela. Recognizing the potential for internal violence and the rising possibility of a mass refugee crisis, Peru’s President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski remarked on June 12th that: “If nothing is done, we are going to end up with a sea full of blood.” President Kucynski’s statement was followed by Peru’s expulsion of the Venezuelan ambassador in Lima on August 11th and a statement from the Peruvian Foreign Minister, Ricardo Luna, who said: "Our fear is that you really have a low-intensity civil war, which would produce a humanitarian crisis of great proportions.” Luna continued, “it's not necessarily going to happen, and it's not easy to compare it to major crises such as the one we have in Syria. But it is a large country. It's a complex situation. It's something that's been building in time.” Earlier this month, four other countries took a stand by leading a charge to suspend Venezuela from Mercosur. The region, however, is far from unified. President Evo Morales of Bolivia congratulated Venezuela for its Constituent Assembly the day after its election, noting that “profound transformations” will stem from this showing of democratic participation. Other leaders from ALBA nations, as well as El Salvador and the Dominican Republic, expressed similar approvals of the Venezuelan government’s handling of the crisis. Maduro held another major military exercise this past weekend as the Venezuela crisis continues to unfold, placing U.S. legitimacy in the region at risk. SFS will continue to follow and report on the crisis in Venezuela with detailed research and analysis. You can follow our reporting on Facebook or via Twitter, or by visiting our website. SFS thanks everyone who provided research and editorial support for this Situation Report, including Rachel Echeto, Martha O'Brien, Kylie Skorupa, and all of our Senior and International Fellows. Copyright © 2017 Center for a Secure Free Society                                                    1440 G St NW, #8198 All rights reserved.                                                                                                    Washington, D.C. 20005 202.909.1108 Want to change how you receive these emails?                                                           securefreesociety.org You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.

El Núcleo Chavista y el Anticristo

El Núcleo Chavista y el Anticristo

Por Saul Godoy

No me pregunten cómo o porqué estuve en aquella reunión de uno de los grupos de estrategia chavista que trabajan dentro del PSUV, el asunto es que éramos unas cuarenta personas, todas, menos yo, eran expertos en algunas áreas técnicas en algunas de las dependencias del estado, había una representación militar vestida de civil, había algunos cubanos.

Mi amigo me había entregado unas credenciales de la gobernación de Carabobo de las que se cuelgan del cuello y me advirtió: “Intégrate, actúa como si los conocieras, para muchos de ellos es primera vez que se ven, de modo que si no levantas sospechas y pasas liso, te ves a enterar de uno de los planes maestros que estamos preparando… diles que tu especialidad es derecho constitucional, que eres abogado”.

Y no exagero si les digo que si descubrían mi coartada lo menos que esperaba era un tiro en la cabeza, había logrado infiltrarme en la guarida del lobo, aquella reunión era el cierre de un ciclo de instrucción.

Estábamos en uno de los salones de conferencias de una universidad en Los Teques, la seguridad no resultó ser tan estricta debido a que supuestamente veníamos “filtrados” de otras instituciones, me había memorizado algunos nombres y cargos, direcciones y cursos de los que venía, mi nombre encubierto estaba en la lista porque mi amigo la elaboró, estaba por mi cuenta, si me descubrían debía morir callado, y eso fue un juramento.

El que nos hablaba era un director del BCV, un economista y empezó su exposición de esta manera: “Hay algo que les puedo asegurar y que ya todos ustedes deben saber, este período presidencial lo vamos a terminar, lo tenemos que terminar, son tres años que tenemos que aguantarnos en el poder como sea, primero, es nuestro derecho constitucional y segundo, de ello depende la sobrevivencia del chavismo…”

“Viva Chávez, viva el Comandante eterno” gritó el hombre a mi lado, me quedé tieso, todos nos estaban mirando, me moví de mi asiento tratando de alejarme de mi fanático vecino.

“Tú ¿Cuál es tu nombre?” le ripostó el conferencista aplacando con un movimiento de la mano el intento de aplauso que se levantaba y que logró dominar.
“Reverol, Oficina Nacional de Estadística”

“Mira Reverol, vamos a dejar esas muestras de afecto para otro momento, estamos en otro tipo de reunión, si no puedes contenerte, simplemente te me vas… no quiero más interrupciones, solo preguntas y al finalizar mi exposición que será de unos veinte minutos, Reverol ¿Puedes aguantar?”

El público rió y Reverol apenado asintió y se escurrió en su asiento.

“Muy bien, como les decía, estamos en un momento crucial y muy difícil para nuestro movimiento revolucionario, lo más posible, lo deseable, es que el presidente Maduro renuncie, pero no ahora, sino el año que viene de modo de dejar a uno de los nuestros para que termine el mandato como lo dice la constitución… para nadie es un secreto que la revolución y nuestro partido pudieran desaparecer si el revocatorio triunfa y se hace este año, como todos ustedes saben, nunca habíamos estado en peor condición en términos de popularidad y aceptación de nuestra gestión, no voy a entrar en detalles de las causas de nuestro derrumbe en las encuestas, ya lo han discutido en otros foros, la crisis que estamos viviendo ha sido suficientemente analizada, lo que vamos a ver es cómo carajo vamos a salir de este problema de la mejor manera posible, tenemos grupos de expertos que han analizado el asunto y este ha sido su análisis, pongan mucha atención…”

Las luces del salón bajaron de intensidad y en una pantalla apareció una primera torta estadística.

“Según nuestros números contamos con un 20% del universo electoral venezolano, yo no voy a ser tan optimista y voy ponerlo en un 10%, ese es nuestro núcleo Patria o Muerte, esos son los verdaderos revolucionarios que no nos vamos a dejar joder por el error de unos pocos, es nuestro deber salvar el legado del Comandante, rescatar el partido de esta debacle y para ello, tenemos que hacer un enorme esfuerzo por reconquistar un 30% de nuestro núcleo, que están allí, esperando por nosotros, muchos están arrechos con las colas y la escasez, otros agobiados por la inflación y la inseguridad, muchos simplemente desencantados porque se sientes abandonados… el plan señores, es contar con estos tres años que nos faltan de gobierno para aglutinar a ese 30% en las filas del PSUV, porque lo más probable es que para las próximas elecciones presidenciales del 2018 las perdamos, pero una cosa es desaparecer del mapa político y otra contar con un 30% del voto duro chavista que nos daría un piso importante para volver a construir una mayoría política, porque este pueblo es chavista señores, chavista de corazón… otra lámina”

La imagen cambió silenciosamente y esta vez era una proyección de los próximos tres años.

“Como les dije, el presidente Maduro es ya historia, cumplió con su papel y ahora viene una nueva etapa con nuevos personajes, sobre todo, el sucesor de Maduro, que por supuesto no va a ser ni Izturis, ni María Gabriela Chávez, ni Jorge Rodríguez, ni Cilia Flores, nadie que esté asociado al gobierno, el sucesor de Maduro tienen que ser una persona muy especial… y por ahora lo vamos a llamar Demián, como el personaje de la Película La Profecía, ¿La recuerdan?, Demián era el anticristo, una persona agradable, carismática, con el que todo el mundo se identificaba, y es la razón por la que va a ser una persona de piel blanca, educada, elegante, simpaticona, probablemente sea un militar, que hable inglés, que se siente con los gringos y los calme, que negocie con la oposición y les de lo que pidan, todo, menos entregarles el poder hasta las próximas elecciones. Este personaje Demián, deberá manejarse entre dos aguas, una a lo interno del PSUV que convertirá en un bastión socialista, con una férrea disciplina marxista leninista, porque de aquí en adelante todo revolucionario que se integre a ese 30% que queremos, tendrá todo asegurado, trabajo, comida, dinero, seguridad social, vivienda, educación para sus hijos, quien acepte pertenecer a nuestro núcleo no tendrá que preocuparse por más nada sino trabajar para nosotros y a cambio nosotros cuidaremos que nada le falte, pero deben actuar como una verdadera tropa, estar en funciones permanentemente acatando las órdenes y trabajando, día y noche, van a ser tres años intensivos, pero vamos a tener el 30% del padrón electoral asegurado en todo el país… otra lámina por favor”

De nuevo apareció una imagen en la pantalla, esta vez la de un presupuesto.

“Por supuesto montar este núcleo nos va a costar un montón de dinero y la única manera de obtener ese dinero es hacer que la oposición trabaje para nosotros  y lo produzca, y aquí viene la principal tarea de Demián, negociar, sentarse con la oposición, con los empresarios y darles todo lo que pidan con tal de poner esas industrias a trabajar a toda capacidad, ¿Quieren dólares para insumos?, aquí están, ¿Quiere que desmontemos los controles de precios? Lo desmontamos y cualquier otra regulación que les de ventaja competitiva, a la Polar hay que darle trato preferencial, ¿Hay que privatizar las empresas básicas de Guayana? Lo hacemos, no hay problema.

Demián debe convertirse en el mejor amigo de los capitalistas venezolanos y la economía del país debe funcionar, como el sistema chino, vamos a adoptar un capitalismo de estado, y mientras nosotros seamos ese estado, el presupuesto para nuestras misiones sociales será sagrado, negociaremos todo menos ese presupuesto, tendrán su Congreso funcionando, soltaremos a sus presos políticos, le daremos papel a sus periódicos, abriremos la fronteras, le lavaremos la cara a la revolución mientras el país se reactiva y vía impuestos y recursos extraordinarios, vamos a levantar ese núcleo chavista que nos garantizará algunas gobernaciones y alcaldías, que el PSUV siga con vida y que podamos volver con mucha fuerza… 

Estén absolutamente seguros que en 2018, si gana la oposición la presidencia de la república, lo cual es un escenario posible, no se la vamos hacer fácil, al contrario, le vamos a sabotear la gobernabilidad así como ellos hicieron con nosotros, ya tenemos grupos preparados en lo profundo del país, en las principales ciudades, para aguarles la fiesta, hay financiamiento en el exterior para apoyar la insurgencia, tenemos toneladas de armas escondidas, vamos a recibir apoyo de las fuerzas de liberación de países vecinos, por eso es tan importante que sigamos gobernando por estos tres años que nos faltan, vamos a dejar sentado un precedente, que la gente se acuerde, no de la crisis de Maduro, sino del gobierno de Demián. 

No sé si están viendo la panorámica, si me estoy explicando, veo a algunos de ustedes con caras de burro, no les gusta la idea, pero es muy sencilla, los próximos tres años nos vamos a concentrar en crear un verdadero partido revolucionario mientras la oposición se ocupará de mantener y cargar con el resto del país, ¿Quieren comida? Prodúzcanla, ¿Quieren buenos hospitales? Constrúyanlos, ¿Quieren medicinas? Tráiganlas… miren, uno de los errores de Chávez en su estrategia, fue tratar de llevar la revolución a todo el país, la gente no estaba preparada y lo que se encontró fue con un muro, ahora vamos hacerlo diferente, ya sabemos con quienes contamos, quien es nuestra gente, probablemente dentro de ese 30% estén los más brutos, los más miserables de los venezolanos, es muy probable que solo contemos con los microencefalicos, no importa, son nuestros, y cada uno es un voto.

Para los que no se han dado cuenta, estoy hablando de que ahora en adelante va haber dos países en uno, un núcleo marxista, duro, bien protegido, rodeado de unas fuerzas armadas fieles y dispuestas al máximo sacrificio, administrando los recursos petroleros, con nuestras propias milicias, ese 30% estará armado y listo para defender la revolución en cualquier campo, nuestra gente estará protegida en sus barrios y urbanizaciones, nuestro lideres tendrán su buena seguridad, ese 30% vivirá en verdadero socialismo, en comunidades orgánicas, diferente al resto del país que será capitalista, que producirán y harán el dinero que garantizará nuestra posibilidad de poder volver en un futuro a corto plazo y volver a ser gobierno.  Eso sí, que no se les ocurra embochinchar el país porque lo que vamos a darles es palo parejo, sin piedad, que ellos se ocupen de su gente y nosotros de la nuestra, y cuidado, si no somos tan exitosos que ganemos las elecciones en el 2018, porque la idea es que el país vea como vive ese 30% y quiera ser parte de ellos.

Pero necesitamos a ese Demián, a ese anticristo, que nos asegure la simpatía del mundo, que nos abra las fuentes del financiamiento, que nos permita volver a integrarnos a la comunidad internacional, que sea recibido en la Casa Blanca como un amigo y socio confiable mientras en el fondo preparamos las condiciones para la nueva revolución latinoamericana, porque esta vez vamos con todo, necesitamos que el capitalismo nos agarre confianza, que baje la guardia y cuando menos de lo esperen tendrán al continente en llamas, y cuidado si no los mismísimos EEUU, porque allí, junto con nuestros hermanos cubanos, estamos armando una revolución como los gringos no lo han visto jamás, en su propio patio y con su propia gente, ya Raúl dio el primer paso y le abrieron las puertas, seguimos nosotros y para que eso suceda no podemos poner a un rojo rojito, a un marxista duro al frente del nuevo gobierno, ya sé que algunos de ustedes se imagina quien es… porque sí tenemos candidatos que se ajustan al perfil de Demián, afortunadamente tenemos opciones, pero por ahora debemos aguantarnos estos meses que faltan con el compañero Maduro al frente del gobierno, y en Enero, esperemos, le entregue el mando a quien vaya a ser Demián y renuncie. Ese es en términos generales el plan que tenemos en desarrollo, ahora vamos a discutir ciertos detalles y luego abriremos la ronda de preguntas y respuestas.”

Eso fue un resumen de lo que vi y escuché en esa reunión de estrategia del chavismo, saquen sus propias conclusiones.   -   saulgodoy@gmail.com

http://elhortador.blogspot.com/2016/07/el-nucleo-chavista-y-el-anticristo.html

Stratfor - How Venezuela's Protests Are Different This Time Around

                                                                            May 12, 2017 | 19:04 GMT

How Venezuela's Protests Are Different This Time Around

(FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images)

It can be difficult to separate the important from unimportant on any given day. Reflections mean to do exactly that — by thinking about what happened today, we can consider what might happen tomorrow.

For nearly five weeks, Venezuela's political opposition has organized thousands of people to protest almost every day. All major cities have experienced formal protests organized by the opposition and destructive bouts of looting by hungry citizens. Unlike the protests in 2014, which were led by a relatively small faction of opposition parties, these demonstrations have maintained their momentum despite several weeks of violent government crackdowns. The frequency of violent confrontations between protesters and security forces suggest that the demonstrations will not quietly taper off, even though each day the government has managed to disperse the protesters. Venezuela's protests have passed the point of no return, though their final outcome depends on actions by the protesters, the government and, most importantly, the armed forces.

Support for the Venezuelan government has steadily eroded under two years of severe economic crisis. Polls and anecdotal evidence suggest that only a third of the population would support the ruling party in an election. Complicating the government's position is the fact that the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is split. Attorney General Luisa Ortega is openly defying its leadership over decisions taken to quell protests, but President Nicolas Maduro has been unable to remove her from her post because she enjoys the support of key factions of the government and armed forces.

Desperate Governments Do Desperate Things

Faced with the possibility of losing power in an electoral contest, and with party officials facing the risk of imprisonment or extradition, the government has begun trying to bolster its position in case it has to hold elections. The increasingly divided ruling party is attempting to limit the number of parties that can run against it as it moves to rewrite the constitution and build a new militia. However, popular anger from the middle class and increasingly from the country's lower classes is boiling over in the streets. Years of food and medicine shortages as well as high inflation mean the government will struggle just to contain large-scale daily demonstrations, much less win elections. And there is no relief in sight: Oil revenue in the country will likely be stagnant for years because of long-term economic mismanagement, and runaway inflation will continue. Even if current protests fade, they will act as a catalyst for future demonstrations. 

Though it is unclear how protests will progress, it is obvious that the current situation is unsustainable. Protests have not dissipated, despite daily crackdowns by the National Guard and by the Bolivarian National Police. The state is devoting a significant amount of resources — money and security personnel — to maintaining public order in Caracas and in other cities. But still, demonstrations have repeatedly shut down the Caracas mass transit system and major thoroughfares. Bouts of looting have increasingly broken out in Valencia and in the poorer neighborhoods of western Caracas. And it's not just civilians protesting. The General Directorate of Military Counterintelligence has been arresting dissenters — even passive ones — in the military's ranks to ward off the threat of a coup. Stratfor sources claim that members of the military have complained about worsening work conditions and have been jailed by military counterintelligence agents. However, the military counterintelligence apparatus is spread thin and is limited in its ability to crack down on internal dissent. Still, rumblings of military dissent are of crucial concern: Efforts to stop protests from crumbling the government will prove futile if parts of the army support them.

Look for Repression To Increase

As protests intensify, so too will the government repression of them. Protesters have not been able to overwhelm the National Guard or police, but neither have they been deterred by their presence. This could prompt the government to turn to more violent methods of repression, especially as protests also become more violent. Cities in Venezuela's Andean region, such as Valencia, Merida and San Cristobal, have experienced frequent violent protests and looting, as well as violence against security forces. But if the president deploys the armed forces against demonstrators, it could prompt Washington to enact more sanctions against he country. There is also the risk that members of the military could defect if they are tasked to use force to bolster such an unpopular government. For these reasons, while Maduro is hesitant to rely on the armed forces, it does not mean that he won't.

The Maduro government has tried to offer political solutions to its opponents, such as creating a way for citizens to help rewrite the constitution. But opposition forces are unlikely to negotiate, given how unproductive government-sponsored talks last yearwere. As its options dwindle, the Maduro government is more likely to turn to violence. Whether it can do so without alienating important members of the armed forces is an open question.

There is clearly enough momentum for protests to persist. Demonstrators are showing very little fear of security forces and return to the same protest sites after being dispersed the day before. Even if the government manages to slow protests, it will likely only be buying itself a bit of time rather than solving its problems permanently. The longer that waves of protest keep pressuring the government, the more likely a severe split within the government and the security forces will become — which will risk ending Maduro's term early.

Todos 'A la Lucha' por Venezuela

Venezuela - Don't be fooled by the ‘fake news’ published by TeleSur

April 9, 2017

Don't be fooled by the ‘fake news’ published by TeleSur

Venezuelan regimen spreads 'fake news' to cover up the use of toxic chemical warfare against peaceful protesters. TeleSur is a satellite television network sponsored by the governments of Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Uruguay, and Bolivia that is headquartered in Caracas, Venezuela.

The fact is that Maduro's Bolivarian Guard indeed used illegal expired dangerous “toxic chemical weapons in the form of tear gas and unknown pink gas against Venezuelan civilians in anti-régime protests in Venezuela. 

The tear gas fired to the protesters expired on October 2015 and had a very strong and toxic effects on the protesters. 

The Castro-communist Maduro's regime uses this of type of chemical warfare to control, disperse and shut down pacific anti-Maduro demonstrations in violation of the freedom of expression and the right to protest as established in the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela under Articles 5*, 333** and 350***. One person was killed, 164 people arrested during the anti-government protests this week, 74 of which remain behind bars. 




Venezuela's regime continues to spread its “fake news” through its networks, all while limiting the opposition's access to three digital TV stations, VPI TV, Vivo Play and Capitolio TV portals, and other Internet TV channels by censuring and declaring them illegal. 

This censorship was imposed and executed without guarantee of due process, a constitutional right, since there was not an express order on behalf of the State or the digital TV operators, as denounced by Venezuela Inteligente and IPYS Venezuela.

Venezuelan activists are committed to uncover and denounce "fake news" fabricated by the Maduro's regime and its allies.  

*Article 5: Sovereignty resides untransferable in the people, who exercise it directly in the manner provided for in this Constitution and in the law, and indirectly, by suffrage, through the organs exercising Public Power. The organs of the State emanate from and are subject to the sovereignty of the people.

**Article 333: This Constitution shall not cease to be in effect if it ceases to be observed due to acts of force or because or repeal in any manner other than as provided for herein. In such eventuality, every citizen*, whether or not vested with official authority, has a duty to assist in bringing it back into actual effect.

*** Article 350: The people of Venezuela, true to their republican tradition and their struggle for independence, peace and freedom, shall disown any regime, legislation or authority that violates democratic values, principles and guarantees or encroaches upon human rights.

#VzlaEnLuchaYResistencia #FakeNews #Venezuela #ResistenciaNoviolenta #DeLaDictaduraALaDemocracia #desafío político #DesobedienciaCivil #ElPoderDeLaGente #resistencia #noviolenta #ElPoderDeLaResistenciaCivilNoviolenta #Libertad  #Democracia #Justicia 

Cristal Montañéz
cristalmontanezvenezuela@gmail.com
@cristalmontane

Maduro’s regimen attacks Venezuelan opposition with unknown toxic ‘pink-reddish’ gas

Venezuela’s regimen uses chemical weapons against protesters

Saturday, April 8, 2017.- Thousands of Venezuelan took the streets in Caracas and cities across the country in a march to demand the restitution of the constitutional thread, election chronogram, and dismissal of the judges of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice, among other petitions. Vice-president Tarek El Aissami declared the march ‘illegal and anti-constitutional.’ Recently, El Aissami was sanction by the Trump administration for promoting international terrorism.

Venezuela’s national guard responded to the pacific anti-Maduro march with expired tear gas (October 2015), and an unknown stronger and more toxic pink-reddish gas. This fact was denounced by Dr. Jose Manuel Olivares, a Deputy to the Venezuelan National Assembly on his Twitter account.

We must continue to alert and denounce before the international community the use of chemical weapons for civilian population control in Venezuela.

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cristalmontanezvenezuela@gmail.com
@cristalmontane

Sobre el conflicto noviolento estratégico By Robert l Helvey

Sobre el conflicto noviolento estratégico por Robert l Helvey

Entendiendo los principios básicos del conflicto estratégico noviolento.

Sobre el conflicto noviolento estratégico By Robert l Helvey from Cristal Montanez