Overview
Venezuela has started to garner international attention as the country's political situation continues to deteriorate, shining a spotlight on the oft-neglected country and its internal unrest. On August 11th, President Donald J. Trump stated during a press conference that he would not discard “a possible military option, if necessary," in Venezuela given the Maduro regime’s persistent repression of protestors and consolidation of power. A few days later, CIA Director Mike Pompeo remarked, “Venezuela could very much become a risk for the United States of America. The Cubans are there, the Russians are there, the Iranians, Hezbollah are there. This is something that has a risk of getting to a very, very bad place, so America needs to take this very seriously.”
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CIA Director Mike Pompeo's comments on Venezuela on Fox News
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President Trump's remarks on Venezuela during press conference
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Unless current trends change, the Trump administration will likely have to decide if, when, and how to provide humanitarian assistance to the Venezuelan people. This includes planning for a potential mass refugee crisis, as well as a potential large-scale and dangerous Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) in Caracas. President Nicolás Maduro's regime and its external allies have planned for this. They are counting on U.S. intervention in Venezuela to help them drive an anti-American narrative throughout the region and legitimize their increased military mobilization in Venezuela. Through high-level, sophisticated information operations and advanced counterintelligence measures, the Maduro regime intends to control the chaos in the country and manipulate the public’s perception of the crisis to its benefit. U.S. humanitarian aid will undoubtedly be spun as clandestine military and paramilitary action, and will likely be met with increased military and intelligence support to the Venezuelan regime by Cuba, China, Russia, and Iran.
The U.S. tendency to overlook Latin America in formulating foreign policy has resulted in a void of accurate information on Venezuela and the region. SFS stays committed to providing up-to-date reporting and has consistently emphasized the importance of Venezuela and Latin America to U.S. foreign policy and national security. Our field research and detailed analysis is carefully constructed so that U.S. policymakers can count on a proper threat assessment.
This Situation Report (SITREP) provides research, writings, and testimony from scholars, senior fellows, and international fellows of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS), as well as information from other scholars and international news outlets analyzing the crisis in Venezuela.
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Situation
Venezuela is on the verge of a constitutional crisis that could accelerate into a “civil war.” This "war" has been manufactured by the Maduro regime, which is using its military and intelligence to manipulate public and political unrest to its benefit, despite the lack of a credible threat against which Venezuela must be defended. The regime's actions are designed to provoke its opposition into calling for protests and inciting violent confrontations, using an already chaotic political atmosphere as cover. This chaos erupted with the dissolution of the National Assembly in March and further intensified when the government solidified its control through the 545-member Constituent Assembly elections this past July. Popular rebellions, either through the military or student/youth activists known as the “resistance,” have further fractured the country, as the escalation of force increases. While the outside world sees a popular uprising against a repressive regime, the government has been capitalizing on the resulting instability to remove dissidents, control defectors, and eliminate any threat to its rule.
Monitoring the circumstances in Caracas closely are Russia and China, the two largest creditors to the Venezuelan regime. Owing more than $160 billion in outstanding debt, Venezuela’s economic collapse could result in the world’s largest default on external debt. Having reinforced their credits, loans, and investments in the country through debt-for-asset swaps, Moscow and Beijing will be there to pick up the pieces. Meanwhile, Iran and Cuba have established themselves on the ground to redefine the informational “ground truth.” Collectively, these external influences are helping the Venezuelan regime create an international narrative that exacerbates the conflict and justifies increased foreign intervention.
U.S. response to date has focused largely on targeted sanctions of Venezuelan regime officials--including the president and vice president--and sources of oil industry financing, and working with a growing regional coalition to isolate the Maduro regime. Draft bills are also moving through the U.S. Congress to provide humanitarian aid to Venezuela. These responses have the potential to spiral out of control unless the U.S. has a sound strategy based on an accurate threat assessment and proper understanding of the situation. Below is commentary and analysis from SFS Executive Director Joseph Humire detailing the crisis and identifying the role of extra-regional actors in its development.
- On February 28th, Humire testified before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere where he outlined the policy priorities the Trump administration and Congress should focus on in Venezuela and Latin America writ large.
- On May 23rd, Humire warned against U.S. intervention in Venezuela in an article for Breitbart.
- On July 13th, Humire spoke on The John Batchelor Radio Show about the situation on the ground and external influences in the country, drawing several parallels between Venezuela and Syria.
- On August 13th, Humire was quoted in Mary O’Grady’s Wall Street Journal column entitled “Imperialists invade Venezuela,” which described how Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have infiltrated the country.
- On August 18th, Humire outlined Venezuela’s ties to terrorism and Iran on Secure Freedom Radio and discussed whether the country is moving toward a “civil war.”
- On August 23rd, Humire outlined how Iran, Syria, and Russia are fortifying the Maduro regime on PanAm Podcast.
- Earlier this month, the Military Review published a comprehensive article entitled the “The Collapse of Venezuela and its Impact on the Region” by Dr. R. Evan Ellis of the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College.
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Humire on NTN24's Poder Latino, debating the intention behind President Trump's statement on military options in Venezuela
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Humire appears on CNN en Español to discuss President Trump's statements on U.S. Response to Venezuela
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Foreign Intervention
The United States' lack of focus on our southern neighbors has enabled extra-regional actors to counter and offset U.S. regional presence and influence in the region for almost two decades. These actors have placed strategic military and intelligence assets in Venezuela, using the country's social unrest and political instability to undermine U.S. legitimacy. This effort is backed by a joint, intergovernmental, multinational alliance that is fortifying the Maduro regime through intelligence, cyber, technological and financial support, as well as military armament and advisors. This “Multipolar Force” consists principally of Iran, Cuba, Syria, and Russia, with shadow support from China.
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Military Propaganda for "Civil War"
On January 13-14, 2017, Venezuela executed the largest military exercise in its history with the participation of defense attachés from 27 nations and military advisors from Cuba, Iran, and Russia. The exercise, entitled Zamora 200 1-2017, was an “Anti-Imperialist Integ ral Action Civil-Military Exercise” made up of 580,000 participants conducting various military drills and maneuvers throughout the country. On the surface, Zamora 200 is a war-gaming exercise designed to plan for a contingency of the Colombian Army amassing along the Venezuelan border, augmented by U.S. air and naval assets combined with Special Forces working with an internal counter-revolutionary force in Venezuela. This scenario is identified as the highest "threat" to the national security of the Bolivarian Republic.
Beneath the surface, the Zamora 200 civil-military exercise has the signature of a sophisticated information operation to construct an international narrative around the potential for a “civil war,” justifying increased military mobilization throughout the country, strengthening of countrywide surveillance and intelligence systems, and consolidating the Venezuelan regime.
Military exercises are common as contingency planning for potential threats. However, they are also commonly used as pretext for increased military mobilization and strategic messaging to internal and external audiences. Parallels between rehearsed situations within the Zamora 200 civil-military exercise in January and the actions of the Maduro regime in months that followed suggest that Zamora 200 (now Plan Zamora) was a propaganda tool designed to support the regime's “civil war” narrative and justify the use of military force amidst a economic and humanitarian crisis. The regime's goal is to provoke the opposition into protesting and inciting a military “rebellion,” effectively starting a “civil war.”
Click here to see some recent examples of how Venezuelan government actions were used to trigger unrest and instability.
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Humanitarian Crisis
The deteriorating humanitarian situation in Venezuela only contributes to political unrest, propelling the country further into a downward spiral. In the past few months, the country’s economic collapse has led to shortages on numerous basic goods, sparking ongoing protests that highlight the lack of resources felt by majority of the population. Reuters reports that inflation in Venezuela has hit a skyrocketed 248.6% in just the first seven months of this year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that overall inflation has reached 720.5% and is projected to reach 2,068.5% in 2018--the highest inflation in the world.
- SFS Senior Fellow Fernando Menéndez wrote an article on May 5th in China-US Focus explaining how the rapid deterioration in Venezuela has repercussions in China.
- Executive Director Joseph Humire joined CGTV on May 9th to discuss the political and economic crisis in the country.
- Menéndez joined CGTV on May 17th to further explain the economic crisis, noting that the food and medicine shortages can be measured through staggering statistics of weight loss and increased illness amongst the population.
- A consortium of Venezuelan universities and NGOs called Encovi produced a study (in Spanish) that reports the food shortage’s effect on the country's health. It stated that among those surveyed, 72% of Venezuelans have lost 19 pounds in the last year.
- A 2016 report from Human Rights Watch states that 87% of those interviewed “had difficulty purchasing food and 12% were eating two or fewer meals a day,” a testament to the economic hardship in the country.
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Congressional Response
There are at least six (6) legislative actions on Venezuela in the U.S. Congress, including four (4) bills and two (2) resolutions. So far, all have been introduced in their respective chambers; only S.Res.35 has passed the Senate. The bills are equally bipartisan, with three (3) sponsored by a Republican and three (3), a Democrat. The bills are also similar in nature, with a humanitarian response as a consistent theme in all of them except for S.1519, which appropriates defense spending for the 2018 fiscal year. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is credited with adding a vital amendment in the markup process to S.1519, directing the Secretary of Defense to report on military and intelligence cooperation between Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Russia, and foreign terrorist organizations by April 2018.
Click here for a breakdown of legislative action regarding Venezuela.
These legislative bills are currently being debated in committees, as members of Congress continue to release statements on the situation in the country. Below is a list of statements that reflect the growing geopolitical importance of Venezuela and how external influences (the Multipolar Force) are manipulating the circumstances on the ground.
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 Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) gave this statement on August 2nd during a floor speech:
"Venezuela — once one of the most richly resourced countries in Latin America — is being dismantled by Nicolás Maduro and his flailing Chavista regime. It is a human tragedy, impacting more than 30 million people who are literally witnessing society collapse around them.”
“Maduro’s actions must not continue unchallenged. I support the Treasury Department’s sanctions against senior Venezuelan officials, including Maduro, placing him in the ignominious company of Kim Jong-un and Robert Mugabe. We must keep the pressure on, and continue to isolate and delegitimize Maduro’s regime. For behind Maduro can be found China, with its billions in infrastructure investment, and Russia, with its growing control over Venezuela’s energy sector, and Iran, whose Hezbollah proxy launders money with Maduro’s acquiescence.”
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 Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) issued the following statement on September 20, 2016, after a visit to Cuba and Venezuela by Iran’s President Rouhani:
“The Iran-Cuba-Venezuela axis is a dangerously toxic mix of three regimes led by despots who sponsor terrorism, violate human rights, censor the internet, kidnap innocent American citizens for ransom, and routinely violate and aid in the evasion of international weapons sanctions. Iran is the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism, and I can assure the public that its 'president' is not visiting Cuba to enjoy apartheid beaches, drink mojitos or take in 'people-to-people exchange' salsa lessons. The fact that Nicolás Maduro would take the time to host Rouhani, as the Venezuelan people lack necessities like medicine and food and the country disintegrates around him, says a lot about his misguided priorities and intentions.”
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U.S. Sanctions
The United States Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned 32 officials in the Venezuelan government in 2017. U.S. sanctions on the Venezuelan government began in 2008 and have accelerated since 2015, after President Obama announced a new executive order, “Blocking Property and Suspending Entry of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Venezuela.” This EO provided the Treasury Department enhanced authority to target officials in the Venezuelan regime.
In 2008, Hugo Carvajal, then Director of Venezuelan Military Intelligence, along with the former Interior Minister Ramón Rodríguez and Henry de Jesús Rangel, Director of DISIP, were sanctioned by OFAC. These sanctions illuminated the increasing role of the Venezuelan military in drug trafficking. In 2011, additional Venezuelan military and intelligence officers were added to the Treasury’s sanctions list for drug trafficking, including Major Cliver Alcala, and SEBIN officer Ramón Madriz.
That same year, the U.S. State Department imposed limited sanctions on PDVSA for its financial dealings with Iran. These sanctions were subsequently lifted with the passing of Iran’s nuclear deal two years ago. In 2013, the State Department re-imposed nonproliferation sanctions on Venezuela’s military industry, CAVIM, for bilateral cooperation with sanctioned Iranian entities, which have since expired as of December 19, 2016.
Click here for a list of this year's OFAC sanctions regarding Venezuela.
SFS testimony supports some of the USG sanctions, but emphasizes that they should be reinforced by a comprehensive, multi-dimensional, whole-of-government strategy. Sanctions in and of themselves are not sufficient to deal with the crisis in Venezuela and could have significant blowback if they are not leveraged through multi-lateral actions.
- Joseph Humire, Executive Director of SFS, appeared on CNN en Español on February 13th to discuss the OFAC designation of Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami.
- Humire appeared again on CNN en Español on July 20th to discuss sanctions as strategy. He noted that sanctions are a starting point to advance U.S. interests in the country, but should be used alongside clear goals and a sound strategy that serves U.S. national security interests in Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere writ large.
- SFS Senior Fellow J.D. Gordon echoed this message on Fox Business on July 30th, stating that sanctions are a good start, but other regional actors need to follow suit.
Several experts propagate the dangers in sanctioning Venezuela’s oil industry and five (5) Republican senators have directly expressed to President Trump that sanctioning the Venezuelan oil industry could potentially push the country closer to China and Russia, two of the largest creditors of Venezuelan external debt.
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SFS Perspective
The Trump administration and U.S. Congress must weigh the costs and benefits of any action (including sanctions and humanitarian assistance) against the Venezuelan government’s plans to catalyze a “civil war.” China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba, who participated in Venezuela’s largest civil-military exercise (Zamora 200), are helping the regime establish an international narrative around the crisis to provoke U.S. intervention. Any intervention on behalf of the United States or its allies will be leveraged to justify increased foreign involvement by this Multipolar Force. U.S. sanctions against the Maduro regime, while having a positive effect in showing solidarity with the Venezuelan people, can have the unintended consequence of strengthening the regime’s narrative that the country is under attack from external actors waging economic warfare against the state. U.S. sanctions targeting the Venezuelan oil sector would also bolster this narrative. Likewise, Colombia’s ongoing discussions to join NATO reinforce the Venezuelan’s regime’s claim of foreign intervention, and provide Russia a pretext to increase its involvement in the conflict.
Establishing a counter-narrative to the one propagated by the Maduro regime and its external allies is key to curbing the regime’s efforts. For this counter-narrative to be effective, the Trump administration must work closely with regional allies, particularly in Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. The latter has already shown the political will and regional leadership to speak out publicly against the repressive regime in Venezuela. Recognizing the potential for internal violence and the rising possibility of a mass refugee crisis, Peru’s President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski remarked on June 12th that: “If nothing is done, we are going to end up with a sea full of blood.” President Kucynski’s statement was followed by Peru’s expulsion of the Venezuelan ambassador in Lima on August 11th and a statement from the Peruvian Foreign Minister, Ricardo Luna, who said: "Our fear is that you really have a low-intensity civil war, which would produce a humanitarian crisis of great proportions.” Luna continued, “it's not necessarily going to happen, and it's not easy to compare it to major crises such as the one we have in Syria. But it is a large country. It's a complex situation. It's something that's been building in time.”
Earlier this month, four other countries took a stand by leading a charge to suspend Venezuela from Mercosur. The region, however, is far from unified. President Evo Morales of Bolivia congratulated Venezuela for its Constituent Assembly the day after its election, noting that “profound transformations” will stem from this showing of democratic participation. Other leaders from ALBA nations, as well as El Salvador and the Dominican Republic, expressed similar approvals of the Venezuelan government’s handling of the crisis. Maduro held another major military exercise this past weekend as the Venezuela crisis continues to unfold, placing U.S. legitimacy in the region at risk.
SFS will continue to follow and report on the crisis in Venezuela with detailed research and analysis. You can follow our reporting on Facebook or via Twitter, or by visiting our website.
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SFS thanks everyone who provided research and editorial support for this Situation Report, including Rachel Echeto, Martha O'Brien, Kylie Skorupa, and all of our Senior and International Fellows.
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