Venezuela Hoy: Un Fallido Estado Narco Criminal

Venezuela Hoy: Un Fallido Estado Narco Criminal

“Nunca en la historia de Venezuela hubo tal corrupción generalizada y desvergonzada”

Por Cristal Montañéz

Publicado en Petroleum World

http://www.petroleumworld.com/es-opinion17110601.htm

Como ex Miss Venezuela y ciudadana naturalizada de Estados Unidos, y activista por la democracia humana en favor de la democracia, siento una gran responsabilidad y un profundo compromiso con mi país de origen. 

Condeno firmemente al estado narcoterrorista que ha caído sobre mi país bajo Nicolás Maduro, quien sucedió a Hugo Chávez. Ambos hombres, siguiendo órdenes de Cuba controlado por los Castro, han empujado al país de la democracia a la dictadura. 

Cuando vivía en Venezuela, mi país era un paraíso tentador y un lugar lucrativo para los negocios. El clima tropical acogedor de Venezuela reflejaba la personalidad folklórica, divertida y fresca de su gente. Aunque el gobierno no era perfecto, mi país era un crisol de paz, exótico y progresivo. Venezuela fue considerado por muchos como un ejemplo de democracia y un modelo político que ha ser replicado en América Latina. La separación de poderes, el respeto por la Constitución y al estado de derecho caracterizaban al gobierno. Hubo programas de comida para las escuelas. El sistema de salud pública del Instituto Venezolano de Seguros Sociales (I.V.S.S.), pudo atender a su población y ofreció gratuitamente servicios médicos ambulatorios, cirugía y hospitalización, así como prescripciones sin costo. 

Recuerdo con orgullo la creación de PDVSA Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), en 1975, la inauguración del Metro de Caracas en 1983 y el programa de becas Grand Mariscal de Ayacucho que educó a tantos ingenieros petroleros y profesionales.

Esos fueron años de crecimiento, relaciones internacionales eficientes y mucho respeto para Venezuela. Todo esto fue antes de que Chávez y Maduro llegaran al poder. 

RÉGIMEN CRIMINAL Y CORRUPTO

Durante las últimas dos décadas, Venezuela ha sido dirigida por fanáticos de Fidel Castro, primero Chávez y ahora Maduro. Ambos dictadores apoyaron la invasión de miles de agentes de inteligencia cubanos en instituciones militares, civiles y estatales venezolanas y subsidiando a los hermanos Castro con recursos venezolanos. Cuba tiene un "ejército de ocupación" en Venezuela, según el secretario general de la OEA, Luis Almagro. 

Hoy, Venezuela es un estado fallido que vive su peor crisis económica. Los venezolanos están luchando por sobrevivir en un país en el que aumenta la violencia criminal y política, y con la tasa de inflación más alta del mundo que se espera llegue al 1,600 por ciento según el Fondo Monetario Internacional. Es casi imposible encontrar medicinas y alimentos básicos necesarios. La gente está buscando para comer en contenedores de basura. En consecuencia, los niños sufren de desnutrición y los pacientes mueren en hospitales contaminados. ¡La crisis humanitaria es insostenible, ya que los venezolanos pasan hambre y muchos mueren! 

Durante los últimos cuatro meses, cientos de miles de personas salieron a la calle para protestar contra la propuesta de asamblea constitucional ilegal de Maduro, la corrupción, el crimen, la violación de los derechos humanos y para exigir justicia, libertad, elecciones justas y la renuncia de Maduro. Las fuerzas del dictador, "colectivos" (hombres armados en motocicletas), la Guardia Nacional y la policía local enfrentaron a los ciudadanos desarmados con brutal represión y violencia utilizando armas de fuego y gas lacrimógeno que resultó en más de 120 muertos, más de 4.000 heridos, y 5,051 personas arrestadas, de las cuales 1,383 permanecen tras las rejas. 

El pueblo venezolano esperaba que las fuerzas armadas venezolanas actuaran como defensores del orden constitucional de la nación e intervinieran para restablecer el estado de derecho, pero no fue así. Desafiando a los EE. UU. Y la comunidad internacional, Maduro anuló la Asamblea Nacional elegida e instituyó ilegalmente una Asamblea Constituyente todopoderosa. Un Congreso al estilo cubano, para reescribir la constitución del país con el fin de consolidar su poder como dictador. 

NARCO ESTADO MILITAR 

Mi padre era militar y crecí con gran respeto por los hombres que dedican sus vidas en defensa del estado. La Constitución venezolana estableció que las fuerzas armadas "están al servicio exclusivo de la nación, y en ningún caso al servicio de ninguna persona o partidismo político". 

Desafortunadamente, Chávez y Maduro convirtieron a las fuerzas armadas venezolanas, incluidas las reservas y los guardias territoriales, en su apéndice político y se aseguraron de que sirvan a sus intereses. Los cubanos fueron insertados en las fuerzas armadas venezolanas para estar atentos a los defectores. La mayoría del liderazgo de las fuerzas armadas está involucrado en el tráfico de drogas, el contrabando y otras actividades ilícitas. Ahora, el objetivo principal de las fuerzas armadas es difundir la ideología política y servir como "resistencia local ante una agresión interna o invasión de fuerzas extranjeras".

PATROCINADOR ESTATAL DEL TERRORISMO 

El recién nombrado vicepresidente de la dictadura de Maduro, Tareck El Aissami, fue sancionado por la Oficina de Control de Activos Extranjeros del Departamento del Tesoro de los EE. UU. Como un "capo de la droga" por desempeñar un papel importante en el tráfico internacional de narcóticos y el lavado de dinero. El Aissami tiene estrechos vínculos con Irán, Siria y Líbano, y brinda apoyo logístico y financiero al grupo terrorista Hezbollah. 

Además, El Aissami ha sido acusado de utilizar tecnología de la información desarrollada por Cuba para emitir pasaportes e identificaciones venezolanas a personas del Medio Oriente vinculadas con Hezbollah. Irán y Venezuela están aprovechando esta red para exportar células terroristas y drogas a centros en los Estados Unidos y en toda América del Norte. 

PETRO ESTADO

Nunca en la historia de Venezuela ha habido una corrupción tan generalizada y desvergonzada. 

Antes de que Chávez asumiera en 1999, la estatal venezolana PDVSA era la segunda mayor compañía energética del mundo y uno de los principales proveedores extranjeros de petróleo crudo y productos derivados del petróleo a los Estados Unidos. Bajo la dictadura de Maduro, la producción petrolera venezolana es 20% menor que cuando Chávez tomó el poder. 

El dictador ha usado a los "pobres" como bandera política para obtener poder. Es comunista, y el modelo militarista está financiado por la riqueza petrolera que pertenece a todos los venezolanos. Si bien los recursos de PDVSA desempeñan un papel importante en la revolución de Maduro en Venezuela, Citgo Petroleum (una subsidiaria de PDV America, unidad estadounidense de PDVSA) se utiliza como su instrumento político en los EE. UU. Para comprar lealtad política. PDVSA ha sido propietaria de Citgo desde 1980. 

EFFECTIVO POR PETROLEO 

A medida que la economía del país se deteriora al borde del colapso, Maduro busca desesperadamente dinero en efectivo para mantenerse en el poder a toda costa, y evitar el incumplimiento de la deuda o un golpe político. Se deben miles de millones de dólares a Rusia y China. 

Muchos creen que Maduro anuló la elección de la Asamblea Nacional para eliminar cualquier obstáculo en el camino de obtener acceso a miles de millones de dólares en préstamos de la estatal rusa Rosneft a cambio de que el petróleo venezolano financie su revolución y los pagos de bonos. Por lo tanto, PDVSA colocó (49.9%) de su participación en Citgo con sede en Houston como un bono a cambio de un préstamo de $ 1.5 mil millones otorgado por Rosneft. 

Existe una seria preocupación de que si PDVSA no puede pagar su deuda a tiempo, Rosneft podría hacerse cargo del control de Citgo y sus refinerías. Todo lo que Rosneft tendría que hacer es comprar los bonos de PDVSA para tener más del 50% de la propiedad de Citgo con sede en Houston. La empresa tiene ingresos anuales (2004) por encima de $ 32 mil millones ($ 30 mil millones de euros), una red de ductos y terminales que atraviesa 24 estados y tres refinerías de EE. UU. con una capacidad de refinación de 749,000 barriles de crudo por día. Las refinerías Citgo están ubicadas en Texas, Louisiana e Illinois. 

Los Senadores bipartidistas de EE. UU. hicieron un llamado a los Secretarios de Estado y Tesorería para analizar el trato de Rosneft con PDVSA ya que Rusia tiene mucho que ganar a través de la transferencia de activos de PDVSA-Rosneft-Citgo. La consumación de este acuerdo sería perjudicial para los intereses de los EE. UU. y la seguridad nacional. 

Los EE. UU. Se han comprometido a apoyar al pueblo de Venezuela que sufre bajo esta tiranía. El 25 de agosto de 2017, el Secretario de Prensa de EE. UU. anunció sanciones financieras a Venezuela firmadas por orden ejecutiva. Las sanciones prohíben a las instituciones financieras proporcionar dinero nuevo a la dictadura de Maduro o la petrolera estatal PDVSA. También restringe la filial estadounidense de PDVSA, Citgo, de enviar dividendos a Venezuela y prohíbe las transacciones en dos bonos propiedad del sector público venezolano. 

MOSCÚ - CARACAS SEPARAN EL NEGOCIO PETROLERO

Maduro y Putin están discutiendo un acuerdo petrolero por separado que permitiría a Rusia y Venezuela evadir sanciones adicionales de Estados Unidos. Bajo el nuevo acuerdo, Rosneft cambiaría su garantía en Citgo por participaciones en otros tres campos petroleros de PDVSA en Venezuela, además de dos contratos de suministro de gas natural y combustible, según informó Reuters. 

No hay duda de que Rusia está aprovechando su posición como financista de Venezuela para obtener más control sobre las reservas de crudo de la nación OPEP, la más grande del mundo. Además, Rosneft se ha colocado como un comerciante de petróleo venezolano y revende alrededor de 225,000 barriles por día, 13 por ciento de la producción total de Venezuela, lo que le da a Rusia una posición más fuerte en los mercados de energía en los Estados Unidos y las Américas según Reuters. 

ARMAS POR PETROLEO 

Según Moscú, entre 2005 y 2007, Venezuela firmó 12 contratos de compra de armas de Rusia por un total de más de $ 4.4 mil millones. 

La Venezuela de Maduro y la Rusia de Putin, los lazos profundos en energía y defensa representando una amenaza para los intereses de EE. UU. Y la estabilidad de la región. 

AMENAZA AL HEMISFERIO OCCIDENTAL 

Teniendo en cuenta las alianzas estratégicas de la dictadura de Maduro con Corea del Norte, Irán, Siria, Cuba, China y Rusia, el conflicto venezolano es una tragedia con graves implicaciones para nuestros vecinos latinoamericanos, los Estados Unidos y el hemisferio occidental. La administración de Trump ha dado el primer paso para fortalecer sus relaciones con los países del área al demostrar su compromiso de trabajar con su liderazgo para ayudar a rescatar y mantener la democracia, la libertad y la seguridad.

Cristal Montañéz, ex Miss Venezuela y activista a favor de la democracia. @cristalmontane 

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Venezuela Today A Failed Criminal Narco State by Cristal Montanez - International Focus IF Magazine

Venezuela Today A Failed Criminal Narco State by Cristal Montanez published in International Focus IF Magazine oct 2017 from Cristal Montanez

Crisis en Venezuela by Center For A Secure Free Society

Table of Contents Overview Situation Foreign Intervention Military Propaganda for "Civil War" Humanitarian Crisis Congressional Response U.S. Sanctions SFS Perspective Overview Venezuela has started to garner international attention as the country's political situation continues to deteriorate, shining a spotlight on the oft-neglected country and its internal unrest. On August 11th, President Donald J. Trump stated during a press conference that he would not discard “a possible military option, if necessary," in Venezuela given the Maduro regime’s persistent repression of protestors and consolidation of power. A few days later, CIA Director Mike Pompeo remarked, “Venezuela could very much become a risk for the United States of America. The Cubans are there, the Russians are there, the Iranians, Hezbollah are there. This is something that has a risk of getting to a very, very bad place, so America needs to take this very seriously.” CIA Director Mike Pompeo's comments on Venezuela on Fox News President Trump's remarks on Venezuela during press conference Unless current trends change, the Trump administration will likely have to decide if, when, and how to provide humanitarian assistance to the Venezuelan people. This includes planning for a potential mass refugee crisis, as well as a potential large-scale and dangerous Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) in Caracas. President Nicolás Maduro's regime and its external allies have planned for this. They are counting on U.S. intervention in Venezuela to help them drive an anti-American narrative throughout the region and legitimize their increased military mobilization in Venezuela. Through high-level, sophisticated information operations and advanced counterintelligence measures, the Maduro regime intends to control the chaos in the country and manipulate the public’s perception of the crisis to its benefit. U.S. humanitarian aid will undoubtedly be spun as clandestine military and paramilitary action, and will likely be met with increased military and intelligence support to the Venezuelan regime by Cuba, China, Russia, and Iran. The U.S. tendency to overlook Latin America in formulating foreign policy has resulted in a void of accurate information on Venezuela and the region. SFS stays committed to providing up-to-date reporting and has consistently emphasized the importance of Venezuela and Latin America to U.S. foreign policy and national security. Our field research and detailed analysis is carefully constructed so that U.S. policymakers can count on a proper threat assessment. This Situation Report (SITREP) provides research, writings, and testimony from scholars, senior fellows, and international fellows of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS), as well as information from other scholars and international news outlets analyzing the crisis in Venezuela. Situation Venezuela is on the verge of a constitutional crisis that could accelerate into a “civil war.” This "war" has been manufactured by the Maduro regime, which is using its military and intelligence to manipulate public and political unrest to its benefit, despite the lack of a credible threat against which Venezuela must be defended. The regime's actions are designed to provoke its opposition into calling for protests and inciting violent confrontations, using an already chaotic political atmosphere as cover. This chaos erupted with the dissolution of the National Assembly in March and further intensified when the government solidified its control through the 545-member Constituent Assembly elections this past July. Popular rebellions, either through the military or student/youth activists known as the “resistance,” have further fractured the country, as the escalation of force increases. While the outside world sees a popular uprising against a repressive regime, the government has been capitalizing on the resulting instability to remove dissidents, control defectors, and eliminate any threat to its rule. Monitoring the circumstances in Caracas closely are Russia and China, the two largest creditors to the Venezuelan regime. Owing more than $160 billion in outstanding debt, Venezuela’s economic collapse could result in the world’s largest default on external debt. Having reinforced their credits, loans, and investments in the country through debt-for-asset swaps, Moscow and Beijing will be there to pick up the pieces. Meanwhile, Iran and Cuba have established themselves on the ground to redefine the informational “ground truth.” Collectively, these external influences are helping the Venezuelan regime create an international narrative that exacerbates the conflict and justifies increased foreign intervention. U.S. response to date has focused largely on targeted sanctions of Venezuelan regime officials--including the president and vice president--and sources of oil industry financing, and working with a growing regional coalition to isolate the Maduro regime. Draft bills are also moving through the U.S. Congress to provide humanitarian aid to Venezuela. These responses have the potential to spiral out of control unless the U.S. has a sound strategy based on an accurate threat assessment and proper understanding of the situation. Below is commentary and analysis from SFS Executive Director Joseph Humire detailing the crisis and identifying the role of extra-regional actors in its development. On February 28th, Humire testified before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere where he outlined the policy priorities the Trump administration and Congress should focus on in Venezuela and Latin America writ large. On May 23rd, Humire warned against U.S. intervention in Venezuela in an article for Breitbart. On July 13th, Humire spoke on The John Batchelor Radio Show about the situation on the ground and external influences in the country, drawing several parallels between Venezuela and Syria. On August 13th, Humire was quoted in Mary O’Grady’s Wall Street Journal column entitled “Imperialists invade Venezuela,” which described how Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have infiltrated the country. On August 18th, Humire outlined Venezuela’s ties to terrorism and Iran on Secure Freedom Radio and discussed whether the country is moving toward a “civil war.” On August 23rd, Humire outlined how Iran, Syria, and Russia are fortifying the Maduro regime on PanAm Podcast.  Earlier this month, the Military Review published a comprehensive article entitled the “The Collapse of Venezuela and its Impact on the Region” by Dr. R. Evan Ellis of the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College.  Humire on NTN24's Poder Latino, debating the intention behind President Trump's statement on military options in Venezuela Humire appears on CNN en Español to discuss President Trump's statements on U.S. Response to Venezuela Foreign Intervention The United States' lack of focus on our southern neighbors has enabled extra-regional actors to counter and offset U.S. regional presence and influence in the region for almost two decades. These actors have placed strategic military and intelligence assets in Venezuela, using the country's social unrest and political instability to undermine U.S. legitimacy. This effort is backed by a joint, intergovernmental, multinational alliance that is fortifying the Maduro regime through intelligence, cyber, technological and financial support, as well as military armament and advisors. This “Multipolar Force” consists principally of Iran, Cuba, Syria, and Russia, with shadow support from China.  Iran  - Read More Cuba  - Read More Russia  - Read More China  - Read More Military Propaganda for "Civil War" On January 13-14, 2017, Venezuela executed the largest military exercise in its history with the participation of defense attachés from 27 nations and military advisors from Cuba, Iran, and Russia. The exercise, entitled Zamora 200 1-2017, was an “Anti-Imperialist Integral Action Civil-Military Exercise” made up of 580,000 participants conducting various military drills and maneuvers throughout the country. On the surface, Zamora 200 is a war-gaming exercise designed to plan for a contingency of the Colombian Army amassing along the Venezuelan border, augmented by U.S. air and naval assets combined with Special Forces working with an internal counter-revolutionary force in Venezuela. This scenario is identified as the highest "threat" to the national security of the Bolivarian Republic. Beneath the surface, the Zamora 200 civil-military exercise has the signature of a sophisticated information operation to construct an international narrative around the potential for a “civil war,” justifying increased military mobilization throughout the country, strengthening of countrywide surveillance and intelligence systems, and consolidating the Venezuelan regime. Military exercises are common as contingency planning for potential threats. However, they are also commonly used as pretext for increased military mobilization and strategic messaging to internal and external audiences. Parallels between rehearsed situations within the Zamora 200 civil-military exercise in January and the actions of the Maduro regime in months that followed suggest that Zamora 200 (now Plan Zamora) was a propaganda tool designed to support the regime's “civil war” narrative and justify the use of military force amidst a economic and humanitarian crisis. The regime's goal is to provoke the opposition into protesting and inciting a military “rebellion,” effectively starting a “civil war.” Click here to see some recent examples of how Venezuelan government actions were used to trigger unrest and instability.    Humanitarian Crisis The deteriorating humanitarian situation in Venezuela only contributes to political unrest, propelling the country further into a downward spiral. In the past few months, the country’s economic collapse has led to shortages on numerous basic goods, sparking ongoing protests that highlight the lack of resources felt by majority of the population. Reuters reports that inflation in Venezuela has hit a skyrocketed 248.6% in just the first seven months of this year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that overall inflation has reached 720.5% and is projected to reach 2,068.5% in 2018--the highest inflation in the world. SFS Senior Fellow Fernando Menéndez wrote an article on May 5th in China-US Focus explaining how the rapid deterioration in Venezuela has repercussions in China. Executive Director Joseph Humire joined CGTV on May 9th to discuss the political and economic crisis in the country. Menéndez joined CGTV on May 17th to further explain the economic crisis, noting that the food and medicine shortages can be measured through staggering statistics of weight loss and increased illness amongst the population. A consortium of Venezuelan universities and NGOs called Encovi produced a study (in Spanish) that reports the food shortage’s effect on the country's health. It stated that among those surveyed, 72% of Venezuelans have lost 19 pounds in the last year. A 2016 report from Human Rights Watch states that 87% of those interviewed “had difficulty purchasing food and 12% were eating two or fewer meals a day,” a testament to the economic hardship in the country. Congressional Response  There are at least six (6) legislative actions on Venezuela in the U.S. Congress, including four (4) bills and two (2) resolutions. So far, all have been introduced in their respective chambers; only S.Res.35 has passed the Senate. The bills are equally bipartisan, with three (3) sponsored by a Republican and three (3), a Democrat. The bills are also similar in nature, with a humanitarian response as a consistent theme in all of them except for S.1519, which appropriates defense spending for the 2018 fiscal year. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is credited with adding a vital amendment in the markup process to S.1519, directing the Secretary of Defense to report on military and intelligence cooperation between Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Russia, and foreign terrorist organizations by April 2018. Click here for a breakdown of legislative action regarding Venezuela. These legislative bills are currently being debated in committees, as members of Congress continue to release statements on the situation in the country. Below is a list of statements that reflect the growing geopolitical importance of Venezuela and how external influences (the Multipolar Force) are manipulating the circumstances on the ground. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) gave this statement on August 2nd during a floor speech:   "Venezuela — once one of the most richly resourced countries in Latin America — is being dismantled by Nicolás Maduro and his flailing Chavista regime. It is a human tragedy, impacting more than 30 million people who are literally witnessing society collapse around them.” “Maduro’s actions must not continue unchallenged. I support the Treasury Department’s sanctions against senior Venezuelan officials, including Maduro, placing him in the ignominious company of Kim Jong-un and Robert Mugabe. We must keep the pressure on, and continue to isolate and delegitimize Maduro’s regime. For behind Maduro can be found China, with its billions in infrastructure investment, and Russia, with its growing control over Venezuela’s energy sector, and Iran, whose Hezbollah proxy launders money with Maduro’s acquiescence.” Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) issued the following statement on September 20, 2016, after a visit to Cuba and Venezuela by Iran’s President Rouhani:  “The Iran-Cuba-Venezuela axis is a dangerously toxic mix of three regimes led by despots who sponsor terrorism, violate human rights, censor the internet, kidnap innocent American citizens for ransom, and routinely violate and aid in the evasion of international weapons sanctions. Iran is the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism, and I can assure the public that its 'president' is not visiting Cuba to enjoy apartheid beaches, drink mojitos or take in 'people-to-people exchange' salsa lessons. The fact that Nicolás Maduro would take the time to host Rouhani, as the Venezuelan people lack necessities like medicine and food and the country disintegrates around him, says a lot about his misguided priorities and intentions.” U.S. Sanctions The United States Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned 32 officials in the Venezuelan government in 2017. U.S. sanctions on the Venezuelan government began in 2008 and have accelerated since 2015, after President Obama announced a new executive order, “Blocking Property and Suspending Entry of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Venezuela.” This EO provided the Treasury Department enhanced authority to target officials in the Venezuelan regime. In 2008, Hugo Carvajal, then Director of Venezuelan Military Intelligence, along with the former Interior Minister Ramón Rodríguez and Henry de Jesús Rangel, Director of DISIP, were sanctioned by OFAC. These sanctions illuminated the increasing role of the Venezuelan military in drug trafficking. In 2011, additional Venezuelan military and intelligence officers were added to the Treasury’s sanctions list for drug trafficking, including Major Cliver Alcala, and SEBIN officer Ramón Madriz. That same year, the U.S. State Department imposed limited sanctions on PDVSA for its financial dealings with Iran. These sanctions were subsequently lifted with the passing of Iran’s nuclear deal two years ago. In 2013, the State Department re-imposed nonproliferation sanctions on Venezuela’s military industry, CAVIM, for bilateral cooperation with sanctioned Iranian entities, which have since expired as of December 19, 2016. Click here for a list of this year's OFAC sanctions regarding Venezuela. SFS testimony supports some of the USG sanctions, but emphasizes that they should be reinforced by a comprehensive, multi-dimensional, whole-of-government strategy. Sanctions in and of themselves are not sufficient to deal with the crisis in Venezuela and could have significant blowback if they are not leveraged through multi-lateral actions. Joseph Humire, Executive Director of SFS, appeared on CNN en Español on February 13th to discuss the OFAC designation of Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami. Humire appeared again on CNN en Español on July 20th to discuss sanctions as strategy. He noted that sanctions are a starting point to advance U.S. interests in the country, but should be used alongside clear goals and a sound strategy that serves U.S. national security interests in Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere writ large. SFS Senior Fellow J.D. Gordon echoed this message on Fox Business on July 30th, stating that sanctions are a good start, but other regional actors need to follow suit. Several experts propagate the dangers in sanctioning Venezuela’s oil industry and five (5) Republican senators have directly expressed to President Trump that sanctioning the Venezuelan oil industry could potentially push the country closer to China and Russia, two of the largest creditors of Venezuelan external debt. SFS Perspective The Trump administration and U.S. Congress must weigh the costs and benefits of any action (including sanctions and humanitarian assistance) against the Venezuelan government’s plans to catalyze a “civil war.” China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba, who participated in Venezuela’s largest civil-military exercise (Zamora 200), are helping the regime establish an international narrative around the crisis to provoke U.S. intervention. Any intervention on behalf of the United States or its allies will be leveraged to justify increased foreign involvement by this Multipolar Force. U.S. sanctions against the Maduro regime, while having a positive effect in showing solidarity with the Venezuelan people, can have the unintended consequence of strengthening the regime’s narrative that the country is under attack from external actors waging economic warfare against the state. U.S. sanctions targeting the Venezuelan oil sector would also bolster this narrative. Likewise, Colombia’s ongoing discussions to join NATO reinforce the Venezuelan’s regime’s claim of foreign intervention, and provide Russia a pretext to increase its involvement in the conflict. Establishing a counter-narrative to the one propagated by the Maduro regime and its external allies is key to curbing the regime’s efforts. For this counter-narrative to be effective, the Trump administration must work closely with regional allies, particularly in Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. The latter has already shown the political will and regional leadership to speak out publicly against the repressive regime in Venezuela. Recognizing the potential for internal violence and the rising possibility of a mass refugee crisis, Peru’s President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski remarked on June 12th that: “If nothing is done, we are going to end up with a sea full of blood.” President Kucynski’s statement was followed by Peru’s expulsion of the Venezuelan ambassador in Lima on August 11th and a statement from the Peruvian Foreign Minister, Ricardo Luna, who said: "Our fear is that you really have a low-intensity civil war, which would produce a humanitarian crisis of great proportions.” Luna continued, “it's not necessarily going to happen, and it's not easy to compare it to major crises such as the one we have in Syria. But it is a large country. It's a complex situation. It's something that's been building in time.” Earlier this month, four other countries took a stand by leading a charge to suspend Venezuela from Mercosur. The region, however, is far from unified. President Evo Morales of Bolivia congratulated Venezuela for its Constituent Assembly the day after its election, noting that “profound transformations” will stem from this showing of democratic participation. Other leaders from ALBA nations, as well as El Salvador and the Dominican Republic, expressed similar approvals of the Venezuelan government’s handling of the crisis. Maduro held another major military exercise this past weekend as the Venezuela crisis continues to unfold, placing U.S. legitimacy in the region at risk. SFS will continue to follow and report on the crisis in Venezuela with detailed research and analysis. You can follow our reporting on Facebook or via Twitter, or by visiting our website. SFS thanks everyone who provided research and editorial support for this Situation Report, including Rachel Echeto, Martha O'Brien, Kylie Skorupa, and all of our Senior and International Fellows. Copyright © 2017 Center for a Secure Free Society                                                    1440 G St NW, #8198 All rights reserved.                                                                                                    Washington, D.C. 20005 202.909.1108 Want to change how you receive these emails?                                                           securefreesociety.org You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.